پیش‌بینی مای‌استیل در خصوص قیمت فولاد و مواد اولیه در بازار چین در کوتاه‌مدت

به گزارش پترومتالز، مای‌استیل پیش‌بینی کرد که قیمت محصولات فولادی در چین در هفته پیش‌رو تحت تأثیر احیای تقاضا برای این محصولات و قیمت‌های بالای مواد اولیه افزایش یابد.

شاخص‌های اقتصاد کلان چین در ماه آگوست، بهبود نسبی در حوزه مصرف، صادرات و سرمایه‌ ثابت را نشان داده است. دولت چین هم به تمهیدات حمایتی خود ادامه داده است.

تقاضا برای محصولات فولادی در ماه جاری (سپتامبر) افزایش می‌یابد و تحت تأثیر حاشیه سود پایین بعید است که تولید فولاد در کوتاه مدت در چین افزایش یابد.

متن کامل پیش‌بینی مای‌استیل را در زیر بخوانید:

Mysteel Research & Consulting expects that major steel product prices will fluctuate upward in the coming week, driven by the restoration of steel demand and firm raw material prices.

Policy/Market Sentiment: The macroeconomic indicators in Aug showed mild recovery in consumption, exports, and fixed investment. Manufacturing sector is the first to benefit from the previous policies to sustain economic growth according to the sub-sector fixed investment data.

Last Friday China’s central bank (PBOC) cut banks’ reserve requirement ratio (RRR) the second time this year, the amount of cash that banks are required to hold as reserves, by 25 basis points for all banks except those already implementing a 5% RRR, marking another major step by Chinese policymakers in recent weeks to boost economic activity amid downward pressure. The Chinese property market continue to trend down and remain the largest uncertainty in the Chinese economy.

• Supply/Demand: Steel demand is expected to trend up seasonally in September, yet against the poor profits of rebar and HRC, steel output is less likely to see an increase in the short term.

Cost: The raw material prices are expected to be range-bound at a high level shortly, supporting the steel prices. On the one hand, feedstock in steel mills is relatively low, creating replenishment needs before the Chinese National Day Holiday & Mid-Autumn Festival (Sep 29-Oct 6). On the other hand, the rise space of hot metal output is limited by the sluggish downstream demand and unsatisfactory profits in steel mills.

RAW MATERIALS:
Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate next week. Given the high hot metal output against low iron ore inventory, iron ore prices have experienced continuous and sharp increases, yet losing upward momentum. Moreover, the profits in 247 steel mills have been sliding for the sixth consecutive week. Only 42.86% of the steel mills reposted profitability as of last week as the Mysteel survey shows, which may dampen the hot metal output and iron ore prices later on.

. Coking coal prices may strengthen in the short term. The domestic coal supply is tight due to stringent safety checks to coal mines and resilient downstream demand from coke plants and steel mills, especially when they intend to replenish coal feedstocks with the holiday approaching.

.Coke prices may slightly trend up in the coming week, supported by rising coal prices and optimistic sales conditions recently, yet the price growth is limited by weak steel demand and anticipated weakening of hot metal output.

• Steel scrap prices are expected to be range-bound shortly against both dull steel demand and supply shortage of steel scrap.