پیش‌بینی مای‌استیل از قیمت محصولات و مواد اولیه فولادی در بازار چین در کوتاه مدت

به گزارش پترومتالز، مای‌استیل امروز سه‌شنبه ۷ شهریور پیش‌بینی کرد که قیمت محصولات فولادی در چین در کوتاه‌مدت، نوسان صعودی داشته باشد و نرخ‌ها افزایش یابد.

دولت چین سیاست‌های حمایتی را در دستور کار دارد و قصد دارد به حکومت‌های محلی در استان‌ها اجازه دهد تا ۱.۵ تریلیون یوان اوراق قرضه برای بازپرداخت بدهی‌ها و حمایت از سرمایه‌گذاری در شهرها منتشر کنند. این سیگنال‌ها باعث بهبود حال و هوای بازار فولاد در چین خواهد شد.

علاوه بر این، تقاضا وضعیت بهتری نسبت به عرضه خواهد داشت چراکه در ماه سپتامبر و اکتبر وارد فصل سنتی ساخت و ساز در چین و افزایش تقاضا برای فولادهای ساختمانی خواهیم شد.

انتظار می‌رود قیمت سنگ آهن، ثبات نسبی با نوسانات نه چندان بزرگ داشته باشد و اصطلاحاً بازار سنگ آهن یک بازار «رِنج» باشد.

متن کامل پیش‌بینی مای‌استیل را در زیر بخوانید:

Mysteel Research & Consulting expects that major steel product prices will fluctuate upward in the coming week, mainly due to the improvement of market
fundamentals.

• Policy/Market Sentiment: The Chinese central bank may set up a special purpose vehicle (SPV) and also intends to allow local governments’ issuance of Yuan 1.5 trillion for special refinancing bonds. This move aims to help twelve troubled provinces repay debts and support urban investment and development companies in addressing their credit liquidity risks. Such signals somehow bolster the market sentiment.

• Supply/Demand: Overall, the growth of steel demand is more than supply in the short term. Steel demand, mainly from construction activities, continued to recover last week, in line with the expectations of peak season in September and October. Meanwhile, high steel supply is anticipated to keep up this week, despite that steel mills in the provinces of Tianjin, Shandong, Henan and Jiangsu have been informed to implement steel production curtailment, according to the Mysteel survey. But with maintenance in multiple steel mills being scheduled, steel output will probably reduce then.
It is worth noting that the property sector has not seen a significant recovery, which may limit the potential for steel price increases.

Cost: The raw material prices may remain stable in the short run under the circumstances of high hot metal output.

RAW MATERIALS:

• Iron ore prices are expected to be range-bound next week. Given the high hot metal output against low iron ore inventory, iron ore prices have experienced continuous and sharp increases, yet losing upward momentum. On the other hand, the profits in 247 steel mills have been sliding for the third consecutive week, as the Mysteel survey shows, followed by a slight drop in hot metal output, weighing on iron ore prices to a certain degree.

. Coking coal prices may weaken in the short term when major coal mines are resuming production and the market sentiment weakens, with increasing failed deals in met coal online auctions recently. Moreover, after the first series of coke price cuts, coke plants tend to procure less coal, waiting for a lower price offered. . Coke prices may remain stable in the coming week. The coke plants’ production profits have declined to Yuan 24/tonne after the price cuts, leaving little room for coke plants to offer lower prices. In addition, coke demand in steel mills remains resilient upon high hot metal output, preventing coke prices from further decreasing. According to the Mysteel survey, the coke stock in 247 steel mills increased by 245,200 tonnes last week.

• Steel scrap prices are expected to be range-bound shortly against both dull demand and supply when steel mills tend to decrease the usage of scrap trimmed by losses in EAF steel mills, and the steel scrap supply shortage is expected to be maintained when China’s economy recovery loses steam.