پیش‌بینی مای‌استیل از روند کوتاه مدت قیمت‌ها در بازار فولاد و مواد اولیه چین

به گزارش پترومتالز، مای‌استیل پیش‌بینی کرد قیمت محصولات فولادی تا پایان هفته جاری روند صعودی خود را حفظ کند. انتظارات در بازار فولاد چین بالاتر رفته چرا که دولت چین، انتشار اوراق قرضه به میزان یک تریلیون یوان را تصویب کرده که مخصوصاً صرف بازسازی مناطق سیل‌زده در چین می‌شود و ممکن است به افزایش تقاضا برای فولاد در سال ۲۰۲۴ منجر شود.

تقاضا برای فولاد در دو هفته گذشته بهبود یافته و خصوصاً مصرف ظاهری میلگرد در سطح بالایی، باقی مانده است.

سطح موجودی خوراک و مواد اولیه در کارخانجات فولادی پایین است که احتمال افزایش موجودی مواد اولیه توسط آن‌ها را تقویت می‌کند. مای‌استیل انتظار دارد که قیمت سنگ آهن همچنان در هفته جاری تقویت شود.

گزارش مای‌استیل را در زیر بخوانید:

Mysteel Research & Consulting expects that major steel product prices will sustain the upward trend over October 30 – November 3, as the market sentiment is boosted by the beneficial macroeconomic moves.

· Policy/Market Sentiment: Market expectations on the policy and steel demand shifted as the Chinese government increased stimulus measures, including the issuance of extra 1-trillion-yuan sovereign debt by China’s top parliament body in Q4. The sovereign debt will be used to rebuild the areas hit by this year’s floods and mainly be spent on water conservancy projects, which may prop up steel demand in 2024.

· Supply/Demand: Steel demand rebounded over the past two weeks, among which the weekly apparent consumption of rebar stayed at a high level of 3 million tonnes. As for supply, steel output is anticipated to be flat as steel mills tend to slightly pare production in response to sales losses. The market fundamentals are in a neutral shape.

. Cost: As the feedstock inventory level in steel mills is relatively low, there is potential for stock replenishment, underpinning steel prices.

RAW MATERIALS:

• Iron ore prices are expected to strengthen this week, boosted by the warming-up of the macroeconomic environment. Since the port arrival of imported iron ore remains stable and hot metal output didn’t drop as much as the market expected before, especially with the policy getting supportive, the prices of iron ore still have an uptick in momentum.

• Coking coal prices are expected to remain stable this week in the encouraging macroeconomic environment when most mines return to normal production despite stringent safety inspections.

• Coke prices may remain flat in the coming week upon relatively stable coke supply and a balance between the supply of coke and the demand for it to produce hot metal.

• Steel scrap prices may move up with fluctuation due to its limited supply from equipment depreciation and demolition and strong price competitiveness. Steel scrap demand may remain resilient under the impact of the latest policies.